Experienced operations executive, entrepreneur, economist, and engineer.

I am a strategic, analytical operations leader. I work with high functioning teams to envision and execute meaningful solutions for a clean economy. My management style is one of collaboration and coaching with a bias towards thoughtful, informed action and continuous improvement. I think systemically, starting with context, then implement from the ground up. I like building resilient products, systems, and organizations.

Education

University of Colorado, Boulder, CO

PhD in Economics, April 2022

Macroeconomics. Developed a simple theory of behavioral aggregate expectations (“Inertial Expectations”) that substitutes for Rational Expectations in a standard simple macro model. I estimated the modified model using a Newton-Raphson gradient algorithm and then calibrated to U.S. data with an “unscented” Kalman filter.

One emergent insight is that realistic boots-on-the-ground solutions to economic sustainability require a focus on ecological sustainability, which in turn requires investment in technologies that contribute to a sustainable (reliable and clean) energy future.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA

MS in Management, June 2000

System Design & Management (SDM) Program: complex technological and organizational systems. Connecting the dots from business case to product to technology.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA

MS in Electrical Engineering, May 1988

Control Systems Engineering — Newtonian physics; modeling of dynamic electrical, mechanical, hydraulic systems; coding.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA

BS in Electrical Engineering, May 1988

Selected Professional Experiences

Vetergy, Boulder, CO

Partner, April 2016 - September 2017

Contractor, September 2017 - Present

Management consulting – organizational learning through investigations of incidents in field operations. Vetergy’s clients, often petrochemical manufacturers, initially engage with our human factor incident investigation program. This is based on Naval Aviation’s process, which emphasizes a search for systemic root causes at the organizational level.

I built and presented at MIT’s 2018 System Design & Management symposium a causal loop diagram highlighting the idea that inevitable individual errors can lead to either innovation or organizational errors. The gating factor is the degree to which a culture embraces curiosity, transparency, and trust. Hierarchical trust is essential for organizational effectiveness and resilience.

Blue Range Cattle Company, LLC, Boulder, CO

Managing Member, November 2015 - December 2018

Organic grass-fed beef cattle, using regenerative practices. Bootstrapped start-up, with some private funding. My main responsibility was modeling and tracking finances.

I learned that stewardship of natural resources tends to be well aligned with medium-term business interests. The common assumption of a stewardship/profit trade-off is generally due to short-term thinking.

Good Again, LLC, Boulder, CO

Business and leadership coaching for technology and agricultural entrepreneurs.

Showcase advisee: HiveTech Solutions, developing technology for beehive health. Collaboration between CU researchers in architecture and ecology. I helped with their winning 2016 New Venture Challenge entry. They have since gone on to win a $500k grant from the state of Colorado in 2021.

Various High-Growth Companies, Boulder and Denver, CO

Co-founder, COO, product development executive, and/or operations executive, 2000 – 2015.

Treehouse Brand Stores, LLC, acquired by Geeknet; Thought Equity Motion, now T3Media; Performance Health Technologies; PhatRat Technology.

Kiva Systems, Palo Alto, CA

Contracted System Co-Architect, 1999-2000

Kiva developed and operated fulfillment center robot swarm technology, and was acquired by Amazon in 2010 for $775 million.  Robots are semi-autonomous agents solving tactical local problems in the context of executing centralized strategic algorithms.  The architecture was somewhat akin to piloted aircraft under the auspices of air traffic control in the U.S.

DEKA Research & Development, Manchester, NH

Control Systems Engineer, January 1995 - January 1998

Private R&D, mostly for medical devices. My role was system architect and engineer for what became the Segway Scooter – electromechanical system with real-time closed-loop control algorithms.Private R&D, mostly for medical devices. My role was system architect and engineer for what became the Segway Scooter – electromechanical system with real-time closed-loop control algorithms.

U.S. Navy, Whidbey Island, WA

Carrier-based pilot, Mission Commander, Nuclear Safety Officer, Maintenance Quality Assurance Officer, September 1988 - January 1995

Field operations and leadership in high-risk operations.

Conferences & Papers

Dissertation

“Inertial Expectations, Monetary Policy, and the Dynamic Phillips Curve”, April 12, 2022

Paper: burlamsbury.net/s/Dissertation.pdf

I introduce Inertial Expectations (IE) as a parsimonious deviation from Rational Expectations (RE) in the context of the basic workhorse New Keynesian monetary model. I show that IE help explain the inverted pendulum-like behavior I and others have noticed in the dynamics of our macroeconomy. I show that with volatility as a proxy for un-welfare, IE can be framed as more rational than RE. Using a gradient algorithm for estimation and an unscented Kalman filter for calibration, I find that IE fits the data well and forecasts with a quality rivaling that of the Survey of Professional Forecasters. I show that IE dynamics are consistent with anecdotal economic stories that allow for bi-directional causality between state and shock variables. Finally, I introduce Dynamic Phillips Curves, based on the New Keynesian model under IE, that shed light on recent and current economic crisis recovery dynamics.

Economics Graduate Student Conference (EGSC), Washington University in St. Louis, October 23, 2021

also delivered at Western Economic Association International (WEAI), 96th Annual Conference, Virtual, June 30, 2021

“An Engineer’s Approach to Monetary Policy: Insights Revealed by Behavioral Deviations from Rational Expectations”

Slides: burlamsbury.net/s/EGSC2021slides.pdf

Paper: burlamsbury.net/s/EGSC2021.pdf

I find that the basic New Keynesian workhorse monetary model modified with two behavioral deviations from Rational Expectations (RE) — sticky expectations and cognitive discounting — explains real U.S. data with an R-squared of 0.986. The resulting reduced-form dynamics resemble those of an actively balanced system — an inverted pendulum like the Segway scooter. The reduced-form solution is found by solving a multivariate version of the Mandelbrot set equation; I show that for all allowable parameter values, the solution converges inside the main cardioid. Thus, the empirically very accurate model is robust to the potential for chaos, suggesting that the macro-economy is as well. (This is only true, however, for active control; it does not hold at the zero lower bound.) Other insights include the inherent emergence of business cycles and preliminary evidence that both of these behavioral deviations from RE are prudent agent behavior.

MIT SDM Symposium, Characterizing the Gap, Cambridge, MA

“Considering ‘Human Factors’ in Characterizing the Gap”, July 13, 2018

Video Presentation: youtube.com/watch?v=My-PUBP_r3I&t=3257s

Slides: burlamsbury.net/s/SDM2018slides.pdf

Paper: burlamsbury.net/s/SDM2018.pdf

I use causal loop diagrams to describe a pattern of dysfunction we found in many of our Vetergy clients. Trust gaps between upper management and frontline workers, once established, are self-reinforcing and intractable. Short-term thinking reinforces several organizational dysfunctions. Incidents and innovation tend to work in opposition because they have opposite signs associated with common causal factors, including decision time horizons, frontline supervisory leadership quality, and the workforce’s level of engagement. The first order of business in reversing the tide of dangerous dysfunction is to establish an internal human factors incident investigation program. This is a step towards a learning organization that emphasizes genuine curiosity and benefits of the doubt (“Hmmm, what was he thinking?” rather than, “What we he thinking??”)

MIT SDM Webinar, Systems Thinking Webinar Series, Virtual

“Cultivating Resilience: Lessons from New Industries”, April 25, 2016

Video Presentation: sdm.mit.edu/cultivating-resilience-with-heuristics-and-systems-thinking-lessons-from-new-industries/

Slides: burlamsbury.net/s/SDM2016slides.pdf

In considering two emerging industries — regenerative agriculture and “functional medicine” — I noted a number of commonalities. Perhaps most compelling, they have two interesting broad characteristics in common: success in both cases hinges on healthy (thriving and diverse) microbiomes (in the gut for medicine and in the soil for agriculture); and anecdotally, early leadership in both industries has been dominated by women. Contrary to the mainstream assumption that there is inherently a trade-off between profit and sustainability, it seems that the trade-off is between short-term profit and sustainability. In fact, long-term profit appears to be very well aligned with investments in, and ongoing maintenance of, healthy microbiomes. Sustainability is not at all synonymous with stability; rather, sustainability strikes a balance between resilience (achieved with diversity, redundancy, and modularity) and adaptability (achieved with organizational learning, courage to question paradigms, and studious attention to nuance).

Selected Patents

Non-linear Control of a Balancing Vehicle (US 6,827,163) Segway scooter balancing algorithm.

Inventory System with Mobile Drive Unit and Inventory Holder (US 7,402,018) Amazon’s warehouse robot swarm.

Movement and Event Systems and Associated Methods (US 7,627,451), Licensed to Apple and others for watch-reported human motion.

Other Activities

Food bank volunteer, 2021 – Present.

Alumni mentor for MIT’s Course 12.000 – Solving Complex Problems, circa 2005.

Planning committee member for MIT’s Systems Thinking Conference, circa 2005.

Board Member for Denver Business Series non-profit networking organization, 2016 – 2017.

Big Brother in Big Brother Big Sister program, circa 2010.